Agenda
As of 1 September 2025, subject to change.
Sessions will be held under the Chatham House Rule unless stated otherwise.
Location of the venue: Tallinn Creative Hub (Kursi 3, Tallinn 10415)
View on map: https://maps.app.goo.gl/dLRRQedVSXxvHkj29
Tuesday, 23 September
16:00-17:30
Pre-event
Shallow Waters and Deep Seas: Maritime Security in the Baltic and High North Post-NATO Enlargement
Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO produced a pivotal shift in the security environment of northern Europe. The new linkage between the High North and the Baltic Sea regions has far-reaching consequences for defence planning for the Nordic-Baltic region and for the conduct of naval operations in what is now a single operational space.
How has the integration of Sweden and Finland into NATO reshaped maritime security in the Nordic-Baltic region? What are the current capabilities of Russia’s Northern and Baltic fleets, and how do they affect our strategic outlook and operational planning? What intelligence and surveillance technologies are needed to improve situational awareness across the region? What innovative tactics and asymmetric strategies should be employed to counter potential threats from numerically superior adversaries in this multidomain environment?
18:00-18:15
Opening speech by Kristen Michal, Prime Minister of Estonia
18:15-18:30
Keynote speech by Hanno Pevkur, Defence Minister of Estonia
18:30-18:45
Keynote speech by Guido Crosetto, Minister of Defence of Italy
18:45-19:55
Keynote Session: Turning Europe into a Fortress
20:00-21:45
Dinner reception
21:45-23:15
Night owls’ session by OSW (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Russia’s War Economy: The Limits of Resilience
Despite unprecedented sanctions pressure and soaring military expenses, Russia’s economy has demonstrated a degree of resilience and even recorded positive macroeconomic performance for the past two years. However, war-related activity now seems to have ceased to be a driving force, and the economy is heading towards a slowdown.
Is the sanctions regime starting to take its toll? Is Russia’s economic growth no longer sustainable? Where are the economic vulnerabilities and bottlenecks? How is Russia seeking to circumvent the sanctions regime, and what further measures could the west implement to intensify pressure? What are the implications for Russia’s military posture?
Wednesday, 24 September
08:00-09:00
Breakfast breakout session
Critical Targets: Sabotage and Strategic Defence Across Europe
Europe has seen an increase in attacks on critical and other infrastructure, from energy and transport networks to communication systems and digital platforms.
What can be said about the methods and tactics employed in such attacks, and their patterns? What is their broader strategic context and their impact? What role does information warfare play in supporting these acts? What can we do to better defend ourselves?
08:00-09:00
Breakfast breakout session
Dividing the Axis: North Korea, Russia and China
North Korea has been a stout supporter of Russia in its war of aggression against Ukraine. Since 2024 Kim Jong Un has provided Russia with personnel, equipment and ammunition to wage war and simultaneously help Russia to stockpile its reserves. Russia and North Korea effectively linked two regional theatres – Europe and the Indo-Pacific. China’s practical support to Russia’s war has been less overt, but Chinese companies are frequently reported to be providing Russia with components and products important to its war efforts.
What threats does Russia and North Korea’s military cooperation pose to the US, China and Europe? How has China’s support and North Korea’s active participation in Russia’s war transformed relations in north-east Asia? How should western powers respond to these developments?
09:15-10:30
Session one: Navigating Uncertainty: The Threat in Focus
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has prompted a consensus not seen in decades about the threat it poses to the rest of the European continent. Even so, variations in threat perception remain, leading states to different conclusions about the scale and urgency of the response needed.
How do current geopolitical circumstances, in particular the possible outcomes of Russia’s war in Ukraine, influence our understanding of the immediate and long-term threats to the Euro-Atlantic area? What lessons can be drawn from the past to inform our response to the threats posed by Russia and other hostile global actors? How do different understandings amongst Allies of the threat picture and different national priorities and defence strategies impact collective security? What can be done to better align priorities?
10:30-11:00
Break
11:00-12:15
Session two: Rethinking Grand Strategy: Opportunities and Perils for a Transatlantic Future
The US administration has sparked a discussion on grand strategy in Washington and globally. Shifts in priorities are shaping new grand strategies across continents. Strategic rebalancing is bound to create friction, from challenging long-held values and interests to political, economic, and military relations.
What will be the contours of the new US and European strategies? Are we witnessing the return of grand bargains and spheres of influence? Can frictions and rebalancing be solved with diplomacy or are we provoking wars? Who will be the winners and losers?
12:15-13:15
Lunch
13:15-14:30
Session three: Fortifying Europe: Reconciling Europe’s Needs and Resources
This summer, Allies agreed on capability targets with a 5% price tag. Europe also awaits the results of the US reassessment of its global military presence and resources.
While Europe has acknowledged the need to take more responsibility for its defence, the reality is that the gaps in most European armed forces might just be too big to be filled in the next 3-5 years. What are the next steps for Europe? Is money alone enough? How do we ensure that Europe can defend itself today?
14:30-15:00
Break
15:00-16:15
Session four: Innovation Under Fire: Adjusting Capabilities and Strategy for Modern Warfare
The impact of technology on battlefield outcomes has been highlighted during Russia’s war in Ukraine, where unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, and crowd-sourced solutions are among the developments that have transformed the nature of warfare.
To what extent are lessons from Ukraine and other recent conflicts transferable to the European context? How can continuous technological innovation help states achieve tactical and strategic advantages against numerically superior adversaries? What is the relationship between emerging technologies and conventional capabilities? What new approaches to innovation and acquisition are required?
16:15-16:45
Closing remarks
