Programme 2010

ABCD 2010

Wednesday, 15 September
Welcoming reception hosted by Kadri Liik, Director of the ICDS
Speech by HE Toomas Hendrik Ilves, President of the Republic of Estonia
Thursday, 16 September

Opening session

Introductory remarks by Anthony Lawrence, Senior Researcher, ICDS, Estonia
Welcome speech by Dr. Jaak Aaviksoo, Minister of Defence, Estonia
  Keynote speech by Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, former NATO Secretary General

Session 1

Deterrence today and tomorrow: can it still deliver security and stability?

Can deterrence with nuclear, conventional and non military means directed toward state or non-state actors be an effective strategy in today’s complex and dynamic global security environment?

Panellists: Shlomo Brom, Brigadier General (ret.) / IDF, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for National
Security Studies, Israel
Riho Terras, Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Defence, Estonia
Dr. Bruno Tertrais, Senior Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche
Stratégique, France
Dr. Stephen E. Wright, Colonel (ret.) / USAF, Professor, School of Advanced Air
and Space Studies, Air University, USA
Moderator: Dr. James H. Anderson, Professor of International and Security Studies,
G. C. Marshall European Centre for Security Studies, USA

Session 2

The dilemmas of credibility: can NATO reconcile them?

A discussion on policy implications: how should NATO adjust its deterrent posture so that it is credible, yet supports stability and does not invite aggressive confrontational responses or close avenues for constructive cooperation with important strategic players?

Panellists: Marshall S. Billingslea, former NATO Assistant Secretary General for
Defence Investment, USA
Stefan Czmur, Brigadier General / Polish Army, Minister’s Councellor on Military Aspects of the CFSP, Department of Security Policy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Poland
Jüri Luik, Ambassador, Permanent Representative to NATO, Estonia
Roger N. McDermott, Honorary Senior Research Fellow, University of Kent, and Senior Fellow in Eurasian Military Studies, Jamestown Foundation, UK
Moderator: Sven Sakkov, Undersecretary for Defence Policy, Ministry of Defence, Estonia

Session 3

Assurance for small allies: how can it succeed or fail?

A discussion centred on the assurance aspect of deterrence, using a small state at the borders of Europe as a practical illustration: how does the asymmetry of stakes, power and interests of small and big countries influence the policies of a small country, its sense of vulnerability and chances of a false sense of security?

Panellists: Jørgen Berggrav, Rear Admiral / Norwegian Navy, National Military Representative to SACEUR for Norway
Sven Mikser, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Parliament (Riigikogu), Estonia
Paul G. Schafer, Major General / USAF, Director for Strategy, Policy & Assessments,
European Command, USA
Moderator: Janne Kuusela, Defence Policy Advisor, Defence Policy Department, Ministry of Defence,

Closing remarks by Sven Sakkov, Undersecretary for Defence Policy, Ministry of Defence, Estonia

Please note that, in order to encourage candid exchange of views, the conference is held under the Chatham House Rule: “When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed.”