Session two

Pattern Traps: Safety of Escalation

September 23, 11:00-12:15

The west’s military assistance to Ukraine has been limited by concerns that it could trigger uncontrolled escalation with Russia, raising the broader question of whether caution is a vulnerability. South Korea’s experience of deterring and managing escalation with North Korea offers a different perspective. As the European and Indo-Pacific theatres are already linked by North Korea’s active participation in Russia’s war against Ukraine, there may also be lessons for each other about restraint, deterrence and freedom of action. This session will examine how democracies might think about escalation management, how the risk of escalation might be balanced with the need for decisive action, and how lessons from both Ukraine and the Korean Peninsula should shape NATO’s approach to escalation and crisis response.

Speakers

Patrycja Bazylczyk

Associate Director and Associate Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies

Jungsup Kim

President of the Sejong Institute

Sébastien Vallette

Deputy Director-General for International Relations and Strategy at the French Ministry of the Armed Forces

Moderator

Jacob Parakilas

Research Leader for Defence Strategy, Policy, and Capabilities at RAND Europe

09:15 Deterring the War: Defanging Russia

13:15 Sustaining the Fight